On November 12, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reported a 2.2-point increase in October, reaching 93.7. While this remains significantly below the 50-year average of 98, it marks an improvement after being below average for 34 consecutive months.
Despite this slight optimism, the Uncertainty Index rose to a record high of 110, highlighting increasing concerns among business owners. Small businesses continue to face substantial challenges, including low sales, labor shortages, and inflationary pressures. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist, noted that while small business owners may feel more confident now that the election is over, the economic climate remains difficult. He remarked, “While optimism is rising on Main Street, small business owners face unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled job openings, and ongoing inflation continue to challenge our Main Streets. However, owners remain hopeful as they approach the holiday season.”
Key findings from the October survey reveal a tough landscape for small businesses. Which include:
- A net negative 20% of owners reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, the lowest figure since July 2020.
- Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% reported raising compensation, down one point from September.
- Owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose five points to a net negative 4%.
- A net 5% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan.
- 35% of all owners reported all job openings they could not fill in the current period
- 35% of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business.
In addition to these challenges, small businesses are facing inventory issues. A net negative 9% reported inventory gains in October, and 2% considered their current inventory levels “too low.” Despite these difficulties, 22% of owners plan to make capital expenditures in the next six months, showing some resilience.
Regarding borrowing, 23% of owners met all their credit needs, while 64% did not seek loans; 6% found it harder to obtain loans compared to previous attempts. Financing has become less of a concern overall, with only 3% citing it as their main business problem.
Overall, while optimism slightly increases, small businesses continue to struggle with inflation, labor shortages, and low sales. As the holiday season approaches, their resilience will be tested amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
